SPY: ETF 90 Day Forecast Accuracy :)

February 6, 2023

We recently reviewed our 90-day forecast accuracy for SPY and are pleased with the results.

Woodseer uses a bottom-up approach to calculate ETF dividend forecast amounts - combining ETF composition data (from our partner Ultumus) with our single name forecasts for the underlying constituents on a proportional basis. 

SPY is routinely in the top 10 most popular ETFs - tracking the S&P 500 - certainly a key one to get right wherever we can.

SPY pays quarterly dividends and we've looked back 

at the past ten dividends since September 2020.

WS SPY 90 day comparison-1


  • We have a mean average difference (between our 90 day forecast amount and the actual declared amount) of just 2.83%
  • Only one of the past 10 dividends was off by more than 5%, in Dec. 2021 (5.9%)
  • The average 90-day forecast accuracy for the four dividends in 2022 was 2.64% - averaging $0.0427
  • The average discrepancy over all ten dividends is $0.0438 

We believe this high degree of accuracy - at 90 days out no less - speaks to:

  1. the quality of our S&P 500 dividend forecast data 
  2. the effectiveness of our ETF calculation methodology

To receive the underlying data we analysed, a sample, or to learn more about how we can make and save you money with you SPY trades - get in touch directly now.