Our date rules get it right
During 2018 we put a lot of time into our various date rules - looking at the past patterns to predict when future dates, including ex-div dates will fall. In a number of cases we noted where patterns evident to the human eye are different from the pattern suggested by our system - looks really can be decieving.
Last Wednesday 24th (July) we were contacted by not one but two of our clients in the options space - (we can't say which ones!) - both asking us within an hour of each other whether we stood by our XOM forecast for this week.
It turns out we were estimating an ex-date of Monday 12th August (and Mondays can be rare) while another large, well known provider was estimating Friday 9th August.
We reviewed our date rules, fearing they might let us down. Rules sometimes are broken - and XOM is no small stock. We reviewed our rules and we stuck with our forecast - Monday 12th for the ex-date...
Yesterday (Wed 31st July) proved to be our day of reckoning and happily we reckoned right: XOM declared with an ex-date of 12/Aug and pay date of 10/Sept ($0.87).
Looks may be decieving - but our date rules this time happily were not.